Sunday House Call, #784, April 4, 2021: The world as we see it.

Dan Gardner, Keynote Speaker, New York Times bestselling author (Risk/The Science of Fear, Future Babble, Superforecasting), and consultant ( joins me to discuss the psychology of risk and decision-making joins the show to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic, the AstraZeneca vaccine and more.

A woman’s risk of a blood clot if they are on the birth control pill is anywhere between 2-8 per 10,000 women over the course of using the pill for a year. The risk of a blood clot if you are pregnant is anywhere between is 1 in 500 to 1 in 2000. Your risk of a blood clot from the AstraZeneca vaccine has been estimated to be between one in 250,000 -1 in 600,000. The risk of contracting a Covid-19 infection in Ontario is about one in 1000. 

Gut feelings for some are superseding the rational interpretation of the evidence. In short, fear becomes the motivating factor in our decision-making process. 

Thinking of Risk in the Era of COVID-19
Is hormonal birth control a factor in developing AstraZeneca-linked blood clots? Experts say it’s unlikely
What the doctor who found the link between blood clots and the AstraZeneca vaccine wants you to know

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2019 
Cause of Death Odds of Dying 
Heart disease 1 in 6 
Cancer 1 in 7 
All preventable causes of death 1 in 24 
Chronic lower respiratory disease 1 in 27 
Suicide 1 in 88 
Opioid overdose 1 in 92 
Fall 1 in 106 
Motor-vehicle crash 1 in 107 
Gun assault 1 in 289 
Pedestrian incident 1 in 543 
Motorcyclist 1 in 899 
Drowning 1 in 1,128 
Fire or smoke 1 in 1,547 
Choking on food 1 in 2,535 
Bicyclist 1 in 3,825 
Sunstroke 1 in 8,248 
Accidental gun discharge 1 in 8,571 
Electrocution, radiation, extreme temperatures, and pressure 1 in 13,394 
Sharp objects 1 in 29,334 
Cataclysmic storm 1 in 58,669 
Hornet, wasp, and bee stings 1 in 59,507 
Hot surfaces and substances 1 in 63,113 
Dog attack 1 in 86,781 
Lightning 1 in 138,849 
Railway passenger Too few deaths in 2019 to calculate odds 
Passenger on an airplane Too few deaths in 2019 to calculate odds