Dan Gardner, Keynote Speaker, New York Times bestselling author (Risk/The Science of Fear, Future Babble, Superforecasting), and consultant (http://tactix.ca) joins me to discuss the psychology of risk and decision-making joins the show to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic, the AstraZeneca vaccine and more.
A woman’s risk of a blood clot if they are on the birth control pill is anywhere between 2-8 per 10,000 women over the course of using the pill for a year. The risk of a blood clot if you are pregnant is anywhere between is 1 in 500 to 1 in 2000. Your risk of a blood clot from the AstraZeneca vaccine has been estimated to be between one in 250,000 -1 in 600,000. The risk of contracting a Covid-19 infection in Ontario is about one in 1000.
Gut feelings for some are superseding the rational interpretation of the evidence. In short, fear becomes the motivating factor in our decision-making process.
Ref:
Thinking of Risk in the Era of COVID-19
Is hormonal birth control a factor in developing AstraZeneca-linked blood clots? Experts say it’s unlikely
What the doctor who found the link between blood clots and the AstraZeneca vaccine wants you to know
| Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2019 | |
| Cause of Death | Odds of Dying |
| Heart disease | 1 in 6 |
| Cancer | 1 in 7 |
| All preventable causes of death | 1 in 24 |
| Chronic lower respiratory disease | 1 in 27 |
| Suicide | 1 in 88 |
| Opioid overdose | 1 in 92 |
| Fall | 1 in 106 |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 1 in 107 |
| Gun assault | 1 in 289 |
| Pedestrian incident | 1 in 543 |
| Motorcyclist | 1 in 899 |
| Drowning | 1 in 1,128 |
| Fire or smoke | 1 in 1,547 |
| Choking on food | 1 in 2,535 |
| Bicyclist | 1 in 3,825 |
| Sunstroke | 1 in 8,248 |
| Accidental gun discharge | 1 in 8,571 |
| Electrocution, radiation, extreme temperatures, and pressure | 1 in 13,394 |
| Sharp objects | 1 in 29,334 |
| Cataclysmic storm | 1 in 58,669 |
| Hornet, wasp, and bee stings | 1 in 59,507 |
| Hot surfaces and substances | 1 in 63,113 |
| Dog attack | 1 in 86,781 |
| Lightning | 1 in 138,849 |
| Railway passenger | Too few deaths in 2019 to calculate odds |
| Passenger on an airplane | Too few deaths in 2019 to calculate odds |
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